Economic news – September 2023
The global economic situation remains unchanged. Current market conditions remain unstable, and uncertainty is a reality for everyone. Prices for goods and services continue to rise, and central banks are doing everything they can to return things to normal. One thing is certain: key rates remain high, and central banks have no intention of lowering them in the near future. They all share a common goal: to reduce inflation. In the article below, we provide you with a detailed summary of the month of September.
Canada
Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its key rate, after raising it twice over the summer. The rate is currently at 5%. A recent article in La Presse (1) suggests that it should remain there for a long time to come. According to information they were able to obtain, in the record of the bank’s board of directors’ discussions, the sole option considered was maintaining or raising the key rate. This was determined by the fact that, in July, inflation rose from 3.3% to 4%.
Rising interest rates are making themselves felt in real estate markets. These are some of the first markets to be affected by any increases. In August, home sales fell by 4.1%. However, the 12-month picture remains optimistic, with year-over-year sales up 5.3%.
United States
As the month began, the Fed held discussions similar to those at the Bank of Canada. They made no increases, but Mr. Powell said that we needed to stand firm to maintain the inflation target. The United States agrees with Canada on one point: the inflation target remains the top priority. Consequently, until the situation returns to normal, rates will not fall.
The price of oil is up 11%. The effect of such a significant increase is a decrease in individual purchasing power. It also drives up the cost of shipping goods. This is reflected in the Consumer Price Index’s rise to 4.7%. In this time of constant change, Americans seem to be recovering, slowly but surely, and this is reflected in a rise in retail sales.
Europe
The European Central Bank, the second-largest central bank in the world, raised its key interest rate to 4%. This rate is at its highest since 1999. The fact that inflation forecasts remain high explains this rate increase. The repercussions of such an increase are quickly being felt in the private sector. In addition, a sharp downturn in the manufacturing sector continued, taking the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to its lowest level in 30 months. According to economists at National Bank (2), these figures only confirm their prediction that the Eurozone will enter a recession by the end of the year. As we mentioned a few months ago, Germany is already in a technical recession.
Emerging markets
China boomed in the early months of 2023, after the post-pandemic rules were lifted. Given that pent-up pandemic demand has returned to normal, growth appears to be slowing. This results in fewer job opportunities for young people. In June, among 16- to 24-year-olds, unemployment reached an all-time high, at 21.3%. More recent data is not available, as China’s National Bureau of Statistics has halted produciion of these reports.
Conclusion
Through us the banks have said, “We’re staying focused on the inflation target.” We will continue to monitor developments and inform you of any changes. If you have any questions about your financial situation, feel free to book an appointment with one of our advisors, who will be happy to help you.